Ryanair Adjusts Winter 2026 Capacity Across Baltic States Markets

Ryanair has announced significant adjustments to its winter 2026-27 flight schedule across the Baltic states. While the airline plans to expand its presence in Latvia—adding 40,000 seats and operating 16 routes with two based aircraft—it is simultaneously cutting capacity in Estonia and Lithuania by 25%. The airline explicitly cited higher airport charges in the latter two countries as the primary driver for this reduction in service.

This strategic shift highlights the ongoing tension between low-cost carriers and airport operators regarding fee structures. Ryanair has also outlined a long-term proposal to double its total traffic across the three Baltic states to 11 million annual seats over the next five years, contingent on favorable operational costs. The current reduction serves as a clear signal to regional authorities regarding the airline's sensitivity to airport pricing models.

Travellers residing in or visiting Estonia and Lithuania will face a reduced selection of direct flights and potentially higher fares due to decreased competition on certain routes. Passengers with existing bookings on affected routes may be subject to schedule changes or cancellations as the airline reconfigures its winter network.

Makutet analysis suggests that this capacity shift is a tactical negotiation move by Ryanair to pressure Baltic airport authorities into lowering fees. We anticipate that if airport charges remain high, the airline will continue to prioritize growth in markets with more favorable cost structures, potentially leading to a long-term decline in connectivity for smaller regional airports in the Baltics.